Bits Blog: RIM's Chief Is Confident of BlackBerry 10 Success

Thorsten Heins, the chief executive of Research in Motion, tells his employees, developers and customers that BlackBerry 10, the company’s new phones and the software platform running them, is a very big bet for RIM. If it catches on, he has saved the company.

In a meeting with New York Times editors and reporters, he expressed his confidence. “I don’t expect things to get much worse,” he said.

It was clear from the presentation that the phone, which will have its debut on Jan. 30, will not introduce any significant hardware innovations. It has the rectangular slab look of smartphones already on the market.

The hardware varies in the absence of a home button and the inclusion of a red LED light that flashes when a message comes in. According to earlier announcements by Mr. Heins, RIM is also making a model with a physical keyboard.

On Monday, Mr. Heins focused on the integration of the usability of the software. A home button is needed on iPhones and phones using Google’s Android operating system, he said, because those operating systems require users to switch repeatedly between applications to perform different tasks. In contrast, BlackBerry 10 will consolidate bits of information and capabilities that are distributed through separate apps on current smartphones. BlackBerry 10’s messaging center, for example, can display Facebook updates, LinkedIn messages, texts and Twitter posts along with e-mails. In turn, BlackBerry 10 users will be able to use that hub, as an example, to reply to Facebook messages without opening their phones’ Facebook app.

And he says it can be done with a flick of the thumb.

Similarly, the BlackBerry 10 address book can display all recent e-mails from any contact and even pull news stories and other information related to his or her company from the Web.

“It is stress relief; it doesn’t make you look at all your applications all the time,” Mr. Heins said. “This is going to catch on with a lot of people.”

First, of course, RIM will have to show consumers how BlackBerry 10 differs and then persuade them that its features are indeed an advance.

On Monday, it look the RIM group just over 30 minutes to demonstrate only some of the new phone’s features. But Mr. Heins said that the new phone’s advantages will be so apparent to customers that it will take only “a one-minute sales pitch in a shop” to win them over.

It was clear from RIM’s presentation, however, that the company is banking on the phone’s really catching on with corporate information technology departments. Frank Boulben, RIM’s chief marketing officer, who was also at the interview, said that he believed that only about half of companies allowed employees to choose their own smartphones. Unlike many other industry observers, Mr. Boulben predicted that some companies might return to selecting their employees’ phones to reduce technology support costs.

To that end, BlackBerry 10 will allow corporations to segregate corporate data and apps from a user’s personal material. As a result, Mr. Heins said, information technology departments will be able to wipe out all of a company’s data on a phone when an employee quits, while leaving the former worker’s data, including photos, untouched.

Despite the dismal failure of the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet computer, Mr. Heins has grand ambitions for the BlackBerry 10 phone in the corporate workplace. He said that RIM is pitching the new phone to corporations as a replacement for desktop and laptop computers in offices over time. He sketched out a situation in which BlackBerry 10 phones will act as building passes for employees who, once at their desks, will connect their BlackBerrys to keyboards and displays.

“Whenever you enter an office, you don’t have your laptop with you, you have your mobile computer power exactly here,” Mr. Heins said, patting a BlackBerry 10 phone sitting in a holster on his hip. “You will not carry a laptop within three to five years.”

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Israelis Kill Hamas Military Commander in Gaza

Reuters

Palestinians extinguished a fire after an Israeli airstrike on a car carrying Ahmed al-Jabari, who ran Hamas's military wing, on Wednesday in Gaza City.

GAZA — The Israeli military carried out multiple airstrikes in Gaza on Wednesday and blew up a car carrying the commander of the Hamas military wing, making him the most senior official of the group to be killed by the Israelis since their invasion of Gaza four years ago. Hamas announced that Israel would “pay a high price.”

The death of the commander, Ahmed al-Jabari, 52, who was on Israel’s most-wanted list of Palestinian militants, was confirmed by Hamas and Israeli officials. The Israeli military said it had ordered the airstrikes as part of a response to days of rocket fire launched from Gaza into Israeli territory.

Mr. Jabari’s death signaled a further escalation in the renewed hostility between Israel and Hamas, the militant organization regarded by Israel as a terrorist group sworn to Israel’s destruction. The Israeli attacks could also further complicate Israel’s fragile relations with Egypt, where the new government has established closer ties with Hamas and had been acting as a mediator to restore calm between Israel and Gaza-based militant groups.

Hamas reacted furiously, saying in a statement that it considered the Israeli attacks to be the basis for a “declaration of war” against Israel. A spokesman for Hamas, Fawzi Barhoum, said the Israelis had “committed a dangerous crime and broke all redlines,” and that “the Israeli occupation will regret and pay a high price.”

Military officials in Israel, which announced responsibility for the death of Mr. Jabari, later said in a statement that their forces had carried out additional airstrikes in Gaza targeting what they described as “a significant number of long-range rocket sites” owned by Hamas that had stored rockets capable of reaching 25 miles into Israel. The statement said the airstrikes had dealt a “significant blow to the terror organization’s underground rocket-launching capabilities.”

Yisrael Katz, a minister from Israel’s governing Likud Party, issued a statement saying that the operation had sent a message to the Hamas political leaders in Gaza “that the head of the snake must be smashed. Israel will continue to kill and target anyone who is involved in the rocket attacks.”Hamas and medical officials in Gaza said both Mr. Jabari and a companion were killed by the airstrike on his car in Gaza City. Israeli news media said the companion was Mr. Jabari’s son, but there was no immediate confirmation.

The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement that Mr. Jabari had been targeted because he “served in the upper echelon of the Hamas command and was directly responsible for executing terror attacks against the state of Israel in the past number of years.”

The statement said the purpose of the attack was to “severely impair the command and control chain of the Hamas leadership as well as its terrorist infrastructure.”

The statement did not specify how the Israelis knew Mr. Jabari was in the car but said the operation had been “implemented on the basis of concrete intelligence and using advanced capabilities.”

Hamas has controlled Gaza since 2007, a year after the Israelis withdrew from the territory captured in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. But Israeli forces went back into Gaza in the winter of 2008-09 in response to what they called a terrorist campaign by Palestinian militants there to launch rockets into Israel. The three-week military campaign killed as many as 1,400 Palestinians, including hundreds of civilians, and was widely condemned internationally.

Israel has long said it would hold Hamas responsible for attacks launched from Gaza on its forces and population, regardless of which group was behind them. Like the United States and Europe, Israel defines Hamas as a terrorist organization. Hamas refuses to recognize Israel’s right to exist.

Mr. Jabari became the acting leader of the Hamas military wing after Israel had severely wounded Muhammad Deif, the top commander, in an assassination attempt in 2003. Mr. Jabari had survived several previous Israeli raids. In 2004, Israeli planes attacked his house killing one of his sons and three other relatives.

Shin Bet, the Israeli security agency, considered Mr. Jabari responsible for what it called “all anti-Israeli terror activity” emanating from Gaza.

He was also known for having played a major role in negotiations that led to the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured by Gaza militants in a cross-border raid in 2006. Mr. Jabari personally escorted Mr. Shalit to a handover to Egyptian intermediaries last year as part of a prisoner exchange for hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli jails. Video of the handoff to Egypt showed Mr. Jabari standing near Mr. Shalit.

Lt. Col. Avital Leibovich, a spokeswoman for the Israeli military, acknowledged Mr. Jabari’s role in that prisoner exchange during a conference call with journalists on Wednesday announcing the airstrike on Mr. Jabari’s car. She also said Mr. Jabari had “a lot of blood on his hands.”

Fares Akram reported from Gaza, and Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem. Rick Gladstone contributed reporting from New York.

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Square Feet: A Wounded Wall Street Is Expected to Stay Put

Emmanuel Dunand/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

A businessman made his way Monday into One New York Plaza in Manhattan's financial district, where the cleanup from Hurricane Sandy was still underway.

More than two weeks after Hurricane Sandy came ashore in Manhattan, sending an 11-foot surge of seawater over much of the southern tip of the island, the financial district is still in tatters.

Dozens of office buildings that were flooded by the storm still lack power and are off-limits to tenants, and many streets are a chaotic mess of generators, work crews and pumps.

Still trying to gauge the extent of the damage, many landlords have been vague about when their buildings will reopen. And some tenants, who have been uprooted to tiny conference rooms in New Jersey or industrial spaces in Brooklyn, are weighing whether to come back to the neighborhood at all.

But despite the uncertainty and destruction, many analysts don’t expect the bulk of tenants to pack up and leave for good, nor do they think that future tenants will rule out the neighborhood over fears they might get flooded.

“I don’t think it will become an overriding factor in the location decision,” said John Wheeler, the head downtown broker for Jones Lang LaSalle, echoing other top brokers. “I guess time will tell if I’m being too sanguine about this.”Brokers add that the neighborhood remains a compelling place to locate a business. Even with some train lines hampered by storm damage, it is still amply served by mass transit, with more than a dozen subway lines and ferry service. The new apartments and condos built in recent years, along with new boutiques and restaurants, also mean that many people can now live a few blocks from their office.

Besides, rents are notably competitive with other business districts in Manhattan, at about $40 a square foot in the financial district, compared with $65 in midtown, according to Cassidy Turley, the brokerage, though the downtown figure is expected to climb when the two new World Trade Center buildings come online.

Complicating the prognosis about the neighborhood’s long-term health is the fact that getting an exact handle on the extent of damage has been tricky. Many major landlords have been reluctant to respond to even basic questions about the status of their buildings. And many brokers have refused to discuss individual properties.

And while the city’s Buildings Department declared early last week that nine downtown buildings were completely off-limits, and another 445 were partially habitable, it did not differentiate between commercial and residential structures.

Jones Lang LaSalle has been one of the few brokerages to tackle the issue. It concluded that a hefty 20 percent of all the major office buildings below Canal Street are closed, or 37 out of 183, according to data compiled as of Monday. And those shuttered buildings, most of which are east of Broadway, represent 29.2 million square feet of space, the data shows.

Anecdotal evidence, too, suggests the damage has been severe. Late last week, the Water Street corridor, which runs along the East River, appeared alarmingly hard-hit.

Men in white hazmat outfits pushed garbage bins on streets, which rumbled with the sounds of generators. Several traffic lights were still dark. Clumps of yellow hoses snaked up escalators and through lobbies. And security guards, protecting against looters, were more numerous than people wearing suits.

Among the buildings confirmed closed were: 99 Wall Street, 199 Water Street, One Wall Street Plaza and 180 Maiden Lane. Others that appear to be closed include 55 Water Street, 85 Broad Street, 7 Hanover Square and 10 Hanover Square, among others. Four New York Plaza, where The Daily News is based, could be closed for a year, though One New York Plaza, whose basement shopping center took on 30 feet of water, should reopen in two weeks, according to a spokeswoman for the building’s landlord, Brookfield Office Properties.

Going forward, some tenants are concerned that floods will become a regular occurrence; after all, just 15 months ago, the city was soaked by Tropical Storm Irene. These tenants say their fears were confirmed by comments that Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo made after Hurricane Sandy about how destructive weather events are likely to recur.

“He was like, ‘If you don’t believe in global warming, wake up and see what’s happening here,’ and he was right,” said Andrea Katz, a development director for WBAI, the public radio station, which has a 10,000-square-foot space at 120 Wall Street. The lower floors of the Art Deco building, which is at South Street and owned by Silverstein Properties, were flooded by Hurricane Sandy.

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Q & A: Weighing the Evidence

Q. My husband weighs twice as much as I do, yet we take the same dose of over-the-counter medications, as recommended on the packaging. Shouldn’t weight be a factor?

A. There is little information about using weight as a factor in adjusting doses of either prescription or over-the-counter medications, said Dr. Steven A. Kaplan, director of the Iris Cantor Men’s Health Center at NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell hospital.

“We are beginning to study different responses by weight,” he said, but he and other researchers have reached no conclusions on recommendations for therapy.

“In my own field, urology,” he added, “my opinion is that it is more likely for the recommended dose to be ineffective in a larger person rather than to be toxic in a thinner adult.”

Some prescription drugs, like chemotherapy agents, already have their dosages adjusted for weight because of their highly toxic nature. As for over-the-counter drugs, recommended doses generally tend to be weighted in favor of safety rather than efficacy, Dr. Kaplan said.

He and other doctors emphasized the importance of following package directions. For example, acetaminophen (like Tylenol) can present a life-threatening risk if the liver cannot process a high dose. If you find that the recommended dose does not work for you, Dr. Kaplan said, speak to your doctor.

C. CLAIBORNE RAY

Readers may submit questions by mail to Question, Science Times, The New York Times, 620 Eighth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10018, or by e-mail to question@nytimes.com.

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Q & A: Weighing the Evidence

Q. My husband weighs twice as much as I do, yet we take the same dose of over-the-counter medications, as recommended on the packaging. Shouldn’t weight be a factor?

A. There is little information about using weight as a factor in adjusting doses of either prescription or over-the-counter medications, said Dr. Steven A. Kaplan, director of the Iris Cantor Men’s Health Center at NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell hospital.

“We are beginning to study different responses by weight,” he said, but he and other researchers have reached no conclusions on recommendations for therapy.

“In my own field, urology,” he added, “my opinion is that it is more likely for the recommended dose to be ineffective in a larger person rather than to be toxic in a thinner adult.”

Some prescription drugs, like chemotherapy agents, already have their dosages adjusted for weight because of their highly toxic nature. As for over-the-counter drugs, recommended doses generally tend to be weighted in favor of safety rather than efficacy, Dr. Kaplan said.

He and other doctors emphasized the importance of following package directions. For example, acetaminophen (like Tylenol) can present a life-threatening risk if the liver cannot process a high dose. If you find that the recommended dose does not work for you, Dr. Kaplan said, speak to your doctor.

C. CLAIBORNE RAY

Readers may submit questions by mail to Question, Science Times, The New York Times, 620 Eighth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10018, or by e-mail to question@nytimes.com.

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Digital Domain: Online Merchants Again Pursue Same-Day Delivery Service

IN the exhilarating, anything-is-possible days of 1998 to 2001, Kozmo.com offered an online store with a quick delivery service in a number of American cities. “Free delivery in under an hour” was its motto.

Kozmo would perish, but some online merchants and their delivery partners are inching back toward that shining vision. Though they aren’t promising free delivery within an hour, they are trying out same-day service for a fee. And in doing so, they are addressing the asymmetry that has bedeviled online purchases of physical goods since Kozmo’s demise: it takes mere seconds to find and buy goods on the Web, but often several days for them to arrive at the doorstep.

Could the wait again be shortened to just an hour? That remains to be seen.

The United States Postal Service will experiment with same-day delivery of online orders in San Francisco. It sees the new option, called Metro Post, as a way to put its delivery infrastructure to fuller use while developing a new source of revenue — a matter of pressing importance as the service’s finances go from bad to worse.

The Postal Service proposes once-a-day pickup of goods ordered online from participating retailers in the city before 2 p.m. and delivery to homes between 4 and 8 p.m.

John G. Friess, a Postal Service spokesman, says the packages won’t go through the normal processing centers, but will instead be passed directly between the Postal Service workers who pick them up and deliver them.

“This will be a new experience,” Mr. Friess says, “having a uniformed Postal Service employee knocking on your front door at this hour, delivering the package that you had ordered earlier in the day.”

A flat rate will be charged for all packages up to 25 pounds, he says, but the price has not been announced and may be adjusted as the trial proceeds.

With its fleets of trucks, United Parcel Service also has the delivery infrastructure for same-city, same-day service. But for now, the company is not set up to do both pickup and delivery in the same day, in the same city, at a modest price.

I used the online U.P.S. pricing guide to find the cost of having a one-pound book picked up at a San Francisco bookstore at 2 p.m. and delivered to a home address a mile and a half away by 8 p.m. the same day. This required U.P.S.’s “Express Critical” service, and the company estimated the cost at $226.46.

If U.P.S. decided it wanted to enter the intracity delivery business in a serious way, it could no doubt offer much more attractive pricing. In fact, it would seem positioned to offer a lower price than the Postal Service, whose market tests of experimental products are regulated by the Postal Regulatory Commission. The Postal Service’s filing with the commission to try out Metro Post is timorous in tone and lists self-applied hobbles. For example, the service says it will enlist 10 or fewer companies for the trial and limit the volume to 200 packages a day, at least until it can “further test its operational capabilities.”

The big online retailers are running their own experiments with same-day delivery in some markets.

 

Last month, Wal-Mart announced that it had begun same-day delivery of online orders in a handful of cities. A check last week of the price of two-hour delivery windows in San Francisco showed flat fees of $6 to $7. (The minimum order is $45.) Amazon also offers a same-day delivery option in 10 markets. In addition to a delivery charge of $8.99 for all orders other than gift cards, it adds a charge of 99 cents for each item in the order.

Very fast delivery of online purchases can be found in Lower Manhattan, the area served by UrbanFetch, which offers 10,000 products online that will be delivered within an hour. The speed is the same as Kozmo’s — in fact, the company was founded in 2005 by Chris Siragusa, who was chief technology officer at Kozmo — but the selection of goods is far larger.

Customers must live within an eight-square-mile service area, and all deliveries are carried by bicycle. There is no delivery fee for orders of more than $100; a $4.95 fee is charged for smaller orders.

When Mr. Siragusa set out to build an online store with home delivery — originally called MaxDelivery — he did not plan to match Kozmo’s one-hour promise. With friends and family, he first tried a service in which the ordering was done earlier in the day and the deliveries in the evening. But he concluded that late-in-the-day delivery was not compelling to customers. “It was still more convenient to walk to the store yourself,” he said.

UrbanFetch’s fast delivery is possible because its goods are physically close to its customers in a densely packed city.  In other places, online customers must be a bit more patient, as Son of Kozmo is not in sight.

Randall Stross is an author based in Silicon Valley and a professor of business at San Jose State University. E-mail: stross@nytimes.com.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: November 13, 2012

An earlier version of this column referred imprecisely to the Postal Regulatory Commission’s oversight of the Postal Service. While the commission regulates the Postal Service’s market tests of  experimental products, regulatory approval is not required for all its operational decisions.

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Top U.S. Commander in Afghanistan Is Linked to Petraeus Scandal

PERTH, Australia — Gen. John R. Allen, the top American and NATO commander in Afghanistan, has become ensnared in the scandal over an extramarital affair acknowledged by David H. Petraeus, a former general. General Allen is being investigated for what a senior defense official said early Tuesday was “inappropriate communication” with Jill Kelley, a woman in Tampa, Fla., who was seen by Mr. Petraeus’s lover as a rival for his attentions.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

F.B.I. agents carried boxes and a computer from the home of Paula Broadwell on Tuesday.

In a statement released to reporters on his plane en route to Australia early Tuesday, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said that the F.B.I. on Sunday had referred “a matter involving” General Allen to the Pentagon.

Mr. Panetta turned the matter over to the Pentagon’s inspector general to conduct an investigation into what a defense official said were 20,000 to 30,000 pages of documents, many of them e-mails between General Allen and Ms. Kelley, who is married and has children.

A senior law enforcement official in Washington said on Tuesday that F.B.I. investigators, looking into Ms. Kelley’s complaint about anonymous e-mails she had received,  examined all of her e-mails as a routine step.

“When you get involved in a cybercase like this, you have to look at everything,” the official said, suggesting that Ms. Kelley may not have considered that possibility when she filed the complaint. “The real question is why someone decided to open this can of worms.”

The official would not describe the content of the e-mails between General Allen and Ms. Kelley or say specifically why F.B.I. officials decided to pass them on to the Defense Department. “Generally, the nature of the e-mails warranted providing them to D.O.D.,” he said.

Under military law, adultery can be a crime.

The defense official on Mr. Panetta’s plane said that General Allen, who is also married, told Pentagon officials he had done nothing wrong. Neither he nor Ms. Kelley could be reached for comment early Tuesday. Mr. Panetta’s statement praised General Allen for his leadership in Afghanistan and said that “he is entitled to due process in this matter.”

A senior Defense Department official said General Allen has denied having an extramarital affair with Ms. Kelley. But the official said the content of some of the e-mails “was of a flirtatious nature; some were of an affectionate nature.”

“That is what makes the e-mails potentially inappropriate,” the official said, adding that it was unclear whether the tone of flirtation was from General Allen to Ms. Kelley or from Ms. Kelley to General Allen, or both. 

The official said he had not read the e-mails but had been briefed on the content, and he said that they did not contain anything inappropriate regarding operations or security. Pentagon officials cautioned against making too much of the number of documents, since some might be from e-mail chains, or brief messages printed out on a whole page, or simply copies of messages sent to other people.

The Pentagon inspector general’s investigation opens up what could be a widening scandal into two of the most prominent generals of their generation: Mr. Petraeus, who was the top commander in Iraq and Afghanistan before he retired from the military and became director of the C.I.A., only to resign on Friday because of the affair, and General Allen, who also served in Iraq and now commands 68,000 American troops in Afghanistan.

Although General Allen will remain the commander in Afghanistan, Mr. Panetta said that he had asked President Obama to delay the general’s nomination to be the commander of American forces in Europe and the supreme allied commander of NATO, two positions he was to move into after what was expected to be easy confirmation by the Senate. Mr. Panetta said in his statement that Mr. Obama agreed with his request.

Gen. Joseph A. Dunford, the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps who was nominated last month by Mr. Obama to succeed General Allen in Afghanistan, will proceed as planned with his confirmation hearing. In his statement, Mr. Panetta urged the Senate to act promptly on his nomination.

The National Security Council spokesman, Tommy Vietor, said in a statement on Tuesday that Mr. Obama also believes that the Senate should swiftly confirm General Dunford.

Scott Shane and Thom Shanker contributed reporting from Washington.

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I.H.T. Special Report: Oil & Money: China Leads the Way as Demand for Coal Surges Worldwide

Gilles Sabrie for The New York Times

Coal piles behind a yurt in Gobi, Mongolia. Coal remains a critical component of the world’s energy supply, despite its bad image.

RICHMOND, Va. — Last summer, nearly half of India’s sweltering population suddenly found the electricity shut off. Air-conditioners whirred to a stop. Refrigerators ceased cooling. The culprits were outmoded power generation stations and a creaky electricity transmission grid.

But another problem stood out. India relies on coal for 55 percent of its electrical power and struggles to keep enough on hand.

Coal remains a critical component of the world’s energy supply, despite its bad image. In China, demand for coal in 2010 resulted in a traffic jam 120 kilometers, or 75 miles, long caused by more than 10,000 trucks carrying supplies from Inner Mongolia. India is increasing coal imports.

So is Europe, as it takes advantage of lower coal prices in the United States. Higher-priced natural gas on the Continent is creating demand for more coal imports from the United States, where coal is taking a drubbing from less costly natural gas.

Dirty, fickle and dangerous, coal may seem an odd contender in a world where promising renewable energy sources like solar, wind and hydroelectric power are attracting attention. Anathema to environmentalists because it creates so much pollution, coal still has the undeniable advantages of being widely available and easy to ship and burn.

The biggest attraction, however, is low cost. By many estimates, including that of Li Junfeng, longtime director general of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, burning coal still costs about one-third as much as using renewable energy like wind or solar.

Coal is not subject to the vagaries of windless or sunless days and can easily meet base-load demands of electricity consumers without interruption. So can nuclear power, but the nuclear industry is still reeling from the March 2011 disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant in Japan. Countries like Germany have turned away from nuclear reactors.

Global demand for coal is expected to grow from 7.9 billion tons this year to 8.9 billion tons by 2016, with the bulk of new demand — about 700 million tons — coming from China, according to a Peabody Energy study. China is expected to add 240 gigawatts, the equivalent of adding about 160 new coal-fired plants to the 620 operating now, within four years. During that period, India will add another 70 gigawatts, via more than 46 plants.

“If you poke your head outside of the U.S., coal-fired plants are being built left and right,” said William Burns, an energy analyst with Johnson Rice in New Orleans. “Coal is still the cheapest fuel source.”

Besides strong demand for thermal coal, which is burned in power plants, use of metallurgical coal or coking coal, used in blast furnaces, is also expected to more than double in China, to about 1.7 billion metric tons by 2016, as the country’s steel mills churn out more steel for automobiles, skyscrapers, and export goods, the Peabody study says.

Coking coal will be increasingly in demand in other steel centers like Brazil and India, pushing coal companies to scrounge for new reserves in places like Botswana, Mongolia and Mozambique.

In all, coal use is expected to increase 50 percent by 2035, said Milton Catelin, executive director of the London-based World Coal Association

“Last year, coal represented 30 percent of world energy and that’s the highest share it has had since 1969,” he said.

Within a year or two, coal will surpass oil as the planet’s primary fuel, Mr. Catelin predicted.

For now, coal seems to be sidestepping a major potential impediment to its use. International accords restricting greenhouse gas emissions to prevent climate change so far have been ineffective.

China plans to put carbon-emission reducing equipment on new plants. But China and other big coal producers still have a long way to go in matters like mine safety. On average, about 2,500 Chinese coal miners die in accidents every year.

On Aug. 29, for instance, a blast at the Xiaojiawan mine in Sichuan province killed more than 40 miners. Officials blamed lax safety and overcrowding in the shafts.

Industry officials insist that as large Chinese coal companies like the Shenhua Group buy out smaller mines, and new technologies develop that can detect dangerous methane gas and automatically shut down mines, safety will improve.

Nowhere are the controversies surrounding coal more pronounced than in the United States. Coal became an important issue in the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign, with the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, accusing President Barack Obama of being anti-coal.

The American coal industry says Mr. Obama is waging a “war on coal” in response to his proposed regulation of air pollution and surface mining in mountain areas.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: November 12, 2012

An earlier version of this article included an incorrect middle initial for the author. The initial (which he does not use in his byline) is A, not G.

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The New Old Age Blog: What Chemo Can't Do

Let’s start with a simple medical fact: Chemotherapy doesn’t cure people who have very advanced Stage 4 lung or colon cancer.

Chemo can be quite effective at earlier stages. Even in late-stage disease, it may relieve symptoms for a while; it might help someone with tumors in his lungs breathe more easily, for example. Chemo can extend life for weeks or months.

It can also make the recipient feel nauseated, wiped out and generally lousy, and require him to spend more time in clinics and hospitals than a dying person might choose to. But it can’t banish cancer. Many aspects of medical prognosis and treatment are uncertain. Not this one.

Such patients’ doctors have almost certainly told them their cancer is incurable. Those who opted for chemotherapy anyway had to sign consent forms spelling out the potential side effects. Yet Dr. Jane Weeks, a research oncologist at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, knew from previous studies that cancer patients can develop unrealistic ideas about their odds of survival.

So as she and her co-authors began analyzing results from the first representative national study of patients with advanced cancer, all undergoing chemotherapy, to see what they thought about its effects, Dr. Weeks expected many — perhaps a third of them — to get it wrong.

She was staggered to see how mistaken she was.

Nearly 1,200 patients or their surrogates were interviewed within months of a diagnosis of Stage 4 colon or lung cancer. They answered a number of questions during these telephone interviews, but the key one was: “After talking with your doctors, how likely did you think it was that chemotherapy would cure your cancer?” The only correct answer: “Not at all likely.”

But a great majority chose one of the other responses indicating some likelihood of cure or else said they didn’t know. The study, just published in The New England Journal of Medicine, found that 69 percent of lung cancer patients and 81 percent of those with colon cancer misunderstood the purpose of the very treatment they’d been undergoing.

The misperception was significantly higher among African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics than among whites — but not because of education levels, the usual variable in studies of health knowledge. “It suggests that this reflects cultural differences,” Dr. Weeks said.

Strangely, the patients who responded inaccurately also were more likely to highly rate their communications with doctors. Those who grasped that chemo wasn’t curative were, in effect, penalizing the doctors who helped them reach that understanding.

In a way, Dr. Weeks said, this makes sense. It reflects what researchers call optimism bias — or what Dr. Douglas White, a University of Pittsburgh bioethicist, has called “the powerful desire not to be dead.”

These were not very elderly people.  The bulk were ages 55 to 69. Only about a quarter of colon cancer patients and about a third of those with lung cancer were over age 70.

“It’s completely understandable that patients want to believe the chemo will cure them,” Dr. Weeks said. “And it’s understandable that physicians hesitate to take away that false hope.”

But this confusion can have unhappy consequences. For patients to make truly informed decisions, “they need to understand the outcomes,” Dr. Weeks said. “If they’re missing this critical fact, that can’t happen.”

People often hit rough times during weeks of chemotherapy. Common side effects include nausea and vomiting, diarrhea and fatigue; there are many trips to hospitals for IV drugs, X-rays and blood tests. “They’ll soldier on if they think it will cure them,” Dr. Weeks said. “Any of us would.”

But if these patients might respond differently if they understand that chemo is meant to make them feel better but may have the opposite effect, or that it may buy them another 10 to 12 weeks (a reasonable average for lung cancer) or maybe a year (for colon cancer) but won’t prevent their deaths.

Moreover, “if patients think chemo has a chance of curing them, they’ll be less likely to have end-of-life discussions early on,” Dr. Weeks said. “And they pay a price for that later” — if they enter hospice care much too late or die in hospitals instead of at home, as many prefer.

Possibly, at the time of the initial discussions, these patients recognized that chemo didn’t equal cure, she hypothesized. Then, they and their doctors began to focus on doing something, and they stopped seeing their cancer as incurable.

But realism — as palliative care doctors know — doesn’t have to mean despair. “A really good physician can communicate effectively and still maintain patient trust and confidence,” Dr. Weeks said.

“We have the tools to help patients make these difficult decisions,” two Johns Hopkins physicians, Dr. Thomas J. Smith and Dr. Dan Longo, wrote in an editorial published with the study. “We just need the gumption and incentives to use them.”

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Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

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The New Old Age Blog: What Chemo Can't Do

Let’s start with a simple medical fact: Chemotherapy doesn’t cure people who have very advanced Stage 4 lung or colon cancer.

Chemo can be quite effective at earlier stages. Even in late-stage disease, it may relieve symptoms for a while; it might help someone with tumors in his lungs breathe more easily, for example. Chemo can extend life for weeks or months.

It can also make the recipient feel nauseated, wiped out and generally lousy, and require him to spend more time in clinics and hospitals than a dying person might choose to. But it can’t banish cancer. Many aspects of medical prognosis and treatment are uncertain. Not this one.

Such patients’ doctors have almost certainly told them their cancer is incurable. Those who opted for chemotherapy anyway had to sign consent forms spelling out the potential side effects. Yet Dr. Jane Weeks, a research oncologist at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, knew from previous studies that cancer patients can develop unrealistic ideas about their odds of survival.

So as she and her co-authors began analyzing results from the first representative national study of patients with advanced cancer, all undergoing chemotherapy, to see what they thought about its effects, Dr. Weeks expected many — perhaps a third of them — to get it wrong.

She was staggered to see how mistaken she was.

Nearly 1,200 patients or their surrogates were interviewed within months of a diagnosis of Stage 4 colon or lung cancer. They answered a number of questions during these telephone interviews, but the key one was: “After talking with your doctors, how likely did you think it was that chemotherapy would cure your cancer?” The only correct answer: “Not at all likely.”

But a great majority chose one of the other responses indicating some likelihood of cure or else said they didn’t know. The study, just published in The New England Journal of Medicine, found that 69 percent of lung cancer patients and 81 percent of those with colon cancer misunderstood the purpose of the very treatment they’d been undergoing.

The misperception was significantly higher among African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics than among whites — but not because of education levels, the usual variable in studies of health knowledge. “It suggests that this reflects cultural differences,” Dr. Weeks said.

Strangely, the patients who responded inaccurately also were more likely to highly rate their communications with doctors. Those who grasped that chemo wasn’t curative were, in effect, penalizing the doctors who helped them reach that understanding.

In a way, Dr. Weeks said, this makes sense. It reflects what researchers call optimism bias — or what Dr. Douglas White, a University of Pittsburgh bioethicist, has called “the powerful desire not to be dead.”

These were not very elderly people.  The bulk were ages 55 to 69. Only about a quarter of colon cancer patients and about a third of those with lung cancer were over age 70.

“It’s completely understandable that patients want to believe the chemo will cure them,” Dr. Weeks said. “And it’s understandable that physicians hesitate to take away that false hope.”

But this confusion can have unhappy consequences. For patients to make truly informed decisions, “they need to understand the outcomes,” Dr. Weeks said. “If they’re missing this critical fact, that can’t happen.”

People often hit rough times during weeks of chemotherapy. Common side effects include nausea and vomiting, diarrhea and fatigue; there are many trips to hospitals for IV drugs, X-rays and blood tests. “They’ll soldier on if they think it will cure them,” Dr. Weeks said. “Any of us would.”

But if these patients might respond differently if they understand that chemo is meant to make them feel better but may have the opposite effect, or that it may buy them another 10 to 12 weeks (a reasonable average for lung cancer) or maybe a year (for colon cancer) but won’t prevent their deaths.

Moreover, “if patients think chemo has a chance of curing them, they’ll be less likely to have end-of-life discussions early on,” Dr. Weeks said. “And they pay a price for that later” — if they enter hospice care much too late or die in hospitals instead of at home, as many prefer.

Possibly, at the time of the initial discussions, these patients recognized that chemo didn’t equal cure, she hypothesized. Then, they and their doctors began to focus on doing something, and they stopped seeing their cancer as incurable.

But realism — as palliative care doctors know — doesn’t have to mean despair. “A really good physician can communicate effectively and still maintain patient trust and confidence,” Dr. Weeks said.

“We have the tools to help patients make these difficult decisions,” two Johns Hopkins physicians, Dr. Thomas J. Smith and Dr. Dan Longo, wrote in an editorial published with the study. “We just need the gumption and incentives to use them.”

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Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

Read More..